Radomlje vs Mura
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Radomlje host Mura in a 1. SNL regular-season clash at Športni Park, Domžale on Friday, 22 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC. Both teams are in mid-table struggles — Radomlje sit sixth on 42 points while Mura lie eighth with 31 points. With the campaign heading toward its conclusion, neither side can afford complacency, making this a contest where recent momentum and tactical setup will prove decisive.

Radomlje have won 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 7 goals but conceding 8, signalling defensive fragility. They lost their last two outings (1–2 to Olimpija Ljubljana and 1–2 to Bravo) before edging Maribor 2–1. Mura mirror a similar W2-D0-L3 record across five games, netting 5 but shipping 6. Their recent wins came against Maribor (2–1) and Primorje (2–0), yet they fell to Koper (0–1) last time out. Crucially, Mura beat Radomlje 2–0 in their last meeting on 21 March 2026.

Bookmakers favour Mura at 1.75, reflecting their recent head-to-head edge and stronger defensive record (63% model rating versus 38%). The market signals BTTS Yes at 1.54 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.59, suggesting an open contest. However, the analytical model leans toward a Radomlje or draw outcome, predicting 35% home win probability versus 30% away win. This divergence creates an interesting market mispricing, though Mura's superior form and defence remain compelling.

Key bet: double chance X2 (draw or Mura win) at 1.23 offers the best risk-adjusted value in this volatile matchup. Mura's recent 2–0 victory over Radomlje combined with their defensive solidity makes draw protection an intelligent play despite the home side's attacking threat.