Chapecoense-sc vs Avai
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Chapecoense-sc hosts Avai in the Copa Sul-Sudeste Final on Sunday, 7 June 2026 at 14:00 UTC. This knockout decider will crown the regional champion. Chapecoense-sc is the betting favourite at 1.53, reflecting home advantage and market confidence, while Avai sits at 5.50 as the underdog.

Recent form tells a troubling story for the hosts. Chapecoense-sc has won just one of their last five matches, conceding eight goals whilst scoring only five. Most damaging: they lost 0–3 to Avai just four days ago. Avai, by contrast, has recorded two wins in their last five outings, including that commanding 3–0 victory over Chapecoense-sc. Head-to-head records show Avai leading 3–1–1 across their last five encounters, with three wins to Chapecoense-sc's one.

The analytical model diverges sharply from the bookmaker consensus. While bookmakers favour Chapecoense-sc at 1.53, the statistical model assigns only 10% probability to a home win, versus 45% for a draw and 45% for an away victory. Avai leads on form rating (57% vs 43%), attack (60% vs 40%) and especially defence (70% vs 30%). BTTS Yes trades at 1.77, whilst Over 2.5 goals is 1.74.

Key bet: Chapecoense-sc to win outright remains the official pick at 1.53. Home advantage in a decisive match carries weight, yet the model and recent form favour Avai heavily. Back the home side with caution, or explore value in double chance 1X at 1.12 to hedge the volatility.