Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs IF
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Stenungsund host Vänersborgs IF in Division 2 Norra Götaland on Thursday, 4 June 2026 at 17:00 UTC. The home side sit ninth in the league with 12 points, while visitors Vänersborgs IF languish at the foot of the table with just four points from nine matches. Stenungsund are clear favourites in the betting market.

Stenungsund have shown mixed form over their last five outings, recording two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 1–1 draw against Motala, preceded by an impressive 6–0 demolition of Lidköping. Vänersborgs IF, by contrast, have struggled badly: just one win in five games, four losses, and a damaging goal difference of −19. They've conceded 14 goals in their last three matches alone, losing 0–2, 0–4 and 2–6 to Motala, Husqvarna and IFK Skövde respectively.

The bookmaking market prices Stenungsund at 1.95, with a draw at 3.65 and away victory at 3.20. The statistical model forecasts home win probability at 45%, with draw chances equally strong at 45%. Away success is rated only 10%. The model's form and attack ratings favour the hosts significantly—70% versus 30% in form and 71% versus 29% in attack—though defensive vulnerability on both sides suggests open play.

Pick to watch: Double chance 1X (Stenungsund or draw) offers the right balance of security and value at 1.95. While the model sees this as genuinely competitive, the draw protection shields against Vänersborgs IF's unpredictability and Stenungsund's inconsistency. Back the favourites with a safety net.