Nõmme Kalju II vs FC Tallinn
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Nõmme Kalju II host FC Tallinn on Monday in Esiliiga A Round 14 at Hiiu Stadium, Tallinn. The home side are favourites at 1.63, reflecting their superior league position and recent momentum. Nõmme Kalju II sit seventh with 14 points, while FC Tallinn occupy ninth place with 11 points. This is a pivotal clash in the middle of the Estonian second tier where both sides are competing for league stability.

Nõmme Kalju II show mixed recent form with two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five matches, scoring 8 goals while conceding 11. A 1–0 victory over FCI Levadia II and a 1–1 draw against Viimsi were offset by a heavy 2–4 defeat to Tartu Welco. FC Tallinn are struggling, recording no wins in their last five outings—just two draws and three losses—with only 1 goal scored and 7 conceded in that span. Their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, and attacking penetration remains a major concern.

The bookmaker consensus heavily backs the home side, with Nõmme Kalju II priced at 1.63 and FC Tallinn at 3.98. The analytical model assigns 35% probability to both a home win and a draw, with 30% for the away side. Double chance 1X is available at 1.11, reflecting market confidence in Nõmme Kalju II avoiding defeat. Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.21, suggesting modest scoring expectations.

Key bet: Nõmme Kalju II are clear favourites at 1.63 and should secure a home win. Their superior form rating, attacking threat and league position give them a decisive edge over a toothless FC Tallinn side. Back the home win with confidence.