Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Levski Sofia hosts CSKA Sofia in a Championship Group clash at Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The league leaders sit 14 points clear of their rivals in third place, making this a significant moment in Bulgaria's top-flight campaign. With both sides fighting for positioning in the final stretch, this Sofia derby carries considerable weight.

Levski Sofia have shown solid consistency, recording 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in their last five matches while scoring 6 and conceding 4. The hosts lead the table with 77 points from 34 games and boast a commanding goal difference of +44. CSKA Sofia mirror identical recent form—2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss—but with fewer goals overall (4 scored, 4 conceded). Sitting in third with 63 points, they remain 14 adrift and occupy a weaker defensive position with a +20 goal difference. Home advantage and league standing clearly favour Levski.

The statistical model assigns 45% probability to a Levski Sofia win and 45% to a draw, leaving only 10% for an away victory. Bookmakers price Levski at 2.31, the draw at 3.21, and CSKA at 3.11. The double chance 1X is offered at 1.31, reflecting the market's confidence in either a home win or stalemate. Both the model and bookmakers see CSKA's winning chances as limited in this matchup.

Key bet: Double chance 1X (Levski Sofia or draw) at 1.31 offers draw protection without exposing your stake to the unlikely away upset. Levski's league position, superior defence and home advantage make this the smartest angle.