England vs Costa Rica
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

England host Costa Rica in a World Cup warm-up friendly on 10 June 2026. This non-competitive fixture offers both nations valuable preparation time before their tournament campaigns. The Three Lions are clear betting favourites at 1.14, reflecting their status as one of the world's elite sides and the home advantage.

England arrive in strong form, recording 3 wins and 1 draw from their last five matches, with an impressive defensive record of 2 conceded across that run. Costa Rica, meanwhile, have struggled badly lately—just 2 draws in five games alongside 3 defeats, including heavy losses to Colombia (1-3) and Iran (0-5). The disparity in recent results and overall quality heavily favours the hosts.

The betting market strongly backs England to win, with the 1.14 odds reflecting near-certainty in bookmaker eyes. The statistical model is more cautious, assigning 45% win probability to the hosts and 45% to a draw, suggesting tighter margins than the odds imply. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.53, while BTTS Yes sits at 2.62.

Key bet: England to win outright remains the most sensible choice despite the short price. The hosts' superior form, defensive stability, and class advantage are decisive factors. While the model flags draw probability, the fixture context and odds represent fair value on a home victory.