NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb hosts HNK Hajduk Split in a crucial HNL regular season fixture at Stadion Maksimir on Saturday, 16 May 2026. Hajduk Split sit second in the table with 64 points, while Lokomotiva occupy sixth place with 42 points. The visitors are overwhelming market favourites and arrive with recent momentum, having defeated Lokomotiva 2-1 just two months ago. This matchup will test the hosts' resilience against a superior opponent.

Lokomotiva have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over their last five matches, scoring 5 and conceding 5 goals. Recent results show inconsistency, including a heavy 0-3 defeat to HNK Rijeka but also draws against NK Varazdin and NK Osijek. In contrast, Hajduk Split have managed only 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five, scoring 5 and conceding 6. However, their league position reflects season-long dominance. The form ratings reveal a significant gap: 62% for the hosts versus 38% for the visitors, though attack and defence metrics are relatively balanced.

Bookmakers price Hajduk Split as clear favourites at 1.80, with Lokomotiva at 3.60 and the draw at 3.40. The market suggests BTTS Yes at 1.61, reflecting belief both teams will score. Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.70. The analytical model forecasts 45% probability for a draw and 45% for an away win, suggesting Hajduk or a stalemate are most likely. The model aligns with the X2 double chance at 1.23, indicating strong defensive stability could favour non-home outcomes.

Key bet: The double chance X2 (draw or HNK Hajduk Split) offers the optimal risk-reward profile. Hajduk's superior league position, head-to-head advantage, and model support for either a draw or away victory make draw protection the smart angle on this fixture. Back the visitors or stalemate at favourable odds.