Vukovar vs NK Varazdin
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Vukovar host NK Varazdin in HNL Regular Season Round 35 on Friday, 15 May 2026 at Stadion Gradski vrt. This late-season encounter sees fourth-place NK Varazdin travelling to struggling tenth-place Vukovar, with European qualification hopes still alive for the visitors. The hosts have little left to play for, while the visitors remain competitive in the title race.

Vukovar sit 10th with 28 points from 34 matches, carrying a poor goal difference of -31. Their recent form is mixed: two wins in their last five, but a heavy 0-3 defeat to HNK Rijeka signals defensive fragility. They have scored 6 and conceded 8 in their last five games. NK Varazdin occupy 4th place with 48 points, boasting a healthier -3 goal difference and two wins in five recent matches. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw with NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The visitors hold a 2-0 victory from their March meeting, establishing psychological advantage.

The betting market prices NK Varazdin as clear favourites at 1.89 for the win, while Vukovar are offered at 3.80. BTTS Yes sits at 1.65, and Over 2.5 goals trades at 1.77. The statistical model forecasts 45% draw probability and 45% away win probability, suggesting NK Varazdin's defence (rated 57%) should hold firm. The double chance X2 option at 1.24 reflects low-volatility expectations.

Smart angle: Back double chance X2 at 1.24. NK Varazdin's superior league position, defensive strength, and recent head-to-head success position them strongly, while draw protection accounts for late-season unpredictability. This represents strong value for a visitors-or-draw outcome.