Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Alaves host Atletico Madrid in La Liga Round 8 at Estadio Mendizorrotza on Saturday, 10 October 2026. The hosts sit sixth with 11 points, while the visitors occupy second place with 16 points. This matchup pits a mid-table side against one of Spain's strongest performers, with Atletico Madrid favoured by the market at 1.83 for the win.

Alaves have shown mixed form across their last five matches, recording two wins, one draw and two losses while scoring 7 and conceding 5 goals. Recent outings include a goalless draw against Athletic Club and successive defeats to Valencia and Racing Santander. In contrast, Atletico Madrid arrive in impressive shape with three wins in five, including a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid, a 4-0 demolition of Osasuna and a 3-0 win versus Real Sociedad. The visitors have scored 10 and conceded just 6 in their recent spell, reflecting superior attacking potency and defensive solidity.

The betting market signals confidence in Atletico Madrid's away credentials, with double chance X2 priced at 1.24. The statistical model aligns closely, projecting a 45% probability for a draw and a 45% probability for an away win, against just 10% for a home victory. Atletico Madrid's form rating of 63% significantly outweighs Alaves' 37%, while attack metrics favour the visitors by the same margin. BTTS Yes is priced at 1.74, suggesting reasonable goal-flow expectations.

Smart angle: Double chance X2 (Atletico Madrid or draw) offers excellent value at 1.24. The statistical model projects 90% combined probability for either outcome, while Atletico Madrid's superior recent form and league position make them formidable visitors. This bet provides draw protection at competitive odds.