Stevenage vs Stockport County
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Stevenage host Stockport County in the League One semi-finals at the Lamex Stadium on Saturday, 9 May 2026. Both teams have navigated earlier knockout rounds to reach this decisive stage, where only one can progress to the final. The winner claims a spot in the championship decider; the loser's season ends. This is knockout football at its most intense.

Stevenage arrive with solid recent form: two wins and two draws in their last five matches, though they've conceded eight goals in that run. They edged Stockport County 2-1 in their most recent meeting earlier this season, a confidence booster heading into this semi-final. Stockport County have also won two of their last five, with an impressive 3-1 victory over Peterborough, but inconsistency—two defeats in that span—raises questions about resilience under pressure. The hosts hold a slight edge in form consistency.

The betting market reflects genuine uncertainty: Stevenage sit at 2.40, Stockport County at 2.80, and the draw at 3.10. The statistical model leans toward a Stevenage or draw outcome, assigning both 45% probability each, with Stockport County at just 10% to win outright. BTTS Yes sits at 1.85, suggesting both teams are capable of scoring. The model slightly favours Stockport County's attacking threat, but Stevenage's home advantage and recent head-to-head success carry weight.

Key bet: Double chance 1X (Stevenage or draw) is the sensible approach in a tight knockout tie. The 1.37 odds reflect genuine value when two well-matched sides meet on a single occasion. Home advantage and recent form slightly favour Stevenage, but draw protection makes tactical sense given the unpredictable nature of semi-final football.