Stockport County vs Port Vale
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Stockport County host Port Vale at Edgeley Park on Tuesday, 28 April 2026 in League One's 43rd round of fixtures. The hosts sit fourth in the table with 74 points, while Port Vale occupy 23rd place with just 39 points. This is a straightforward contest between a promotion-chasing side and a team battling near the relegation zone, with the bookmakers heavily favoring the home side.

Stockport County have shown mixed recent form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses across their last five games, scoring 9 goals and conceding 8. Their attacking threat remains potent, evidenced by a 3-1 victory over Peterborough, though they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Mansfield Town in their most recent outing. Port Vale, by contrast, have won just once in their last five matches, drawing twice and losing twice, with a poor goal tally of 4 scored against 4 conceded. The form disparity is stark, and Stockport's league position reflects their superiority this season.

The betting market reflects a clear confidence in Stockport, with the home win priced at 1.40 against 5.75 for an away victory. The analytical model suggests 45% probability for a home win and 45% for a draw, indicating the model sees tighter odds than bookmakers; the 10% away win probability aligns with market sentiment. Double chance 1X is available at 1.09, reflecting minimal risk of an away result. Over 2.5 goals is favored at 1.65, suggesting attacking intent from the home side.

Pick to watch: Stockport County are overwhelming favorites and the statistical model backs a home win or draw outcome. The home win at 1.40 represents the clearest path; alternatively, Double chance 1X at 1.09 provides a safer option if you want maximum security. Port Vale lack the firepower and form to upset a promotion-chasing side at home.