ASA Targu Mures vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

ASA Targu Mures host Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ on Saturday 2 May in Liga II's Relegation Group 6 at Stadionul Trans-Sil. This is a critical clash for both sides fighting against the drop, with ASA Targu Mures sitting second on 45 points and Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ languishing seventh on just 20 points. The gap is substantial, and the stakes are high.

ASA Targu Mures enter on strong form: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss across their last five matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 6. Recent results include a 1-0 victory over Politehnica Iasi and consecutive draws. In contrast, Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ are struggling with no wins in their last five, posting 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses while leaking 12 goals and scoring just 4. Their defensive fragility is alarming, and they arrive as clear underdogs.

The betting market reflects the stark difference: 1.11 for an ASA Targu Mures win, 8.40 for a draw, and 13.00 for an away victory. The statistical model assigns the home side a 50% win probability with a dominant form rating of 80% and an attack edge of 69%. ASA Targu Mures also won their head-to-head meeting 3-0 in September 2025, establishing clear superiority.

Key bet: ASA Targu Mures to win outright at 1.11 is the clear pick. The hosts' superior form, defensive solidity, and dominant recent record against this opponent make a home victory the natural outcome. Back the favourite.