Kuressaare vs Trans Narva
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Kuressaare host Trans Narva in Meistriliiga action on Tuesday at Kuressaare Linnastaadion. This matchday 16 fixture pits two struggling sides separated by just four points in the standings. Kuressaare occupy ninth place with 13 points, while Trans Narva sit tenth on nine points. Both teams are fighting to climb out of the lower half and will be seeking a critical three points.

Recent form tells a mixed story. Kuressaare have won just one of their last five matches (1W 1D 3L), scoring four goals while conceding seven. Trans Narva show slightly better attacking credentials with two wins in their last five outings (2W 0D 3L), netting 11 goals—though their defence has leaked eight. Head-to-head history favours the hosts: in their last five meetings, Kuressaare won twice, drew once, and lost twice. The overall fixture remains competitive.

The betting market prices Kuressaare as slight favourites at 2.65, with a draw at 3.45 and Trans Narva at 2.30. The statistical model projects home advantage strongly, assigning 45% to Kuressaare, 45% to a draw, and just 10% to the away side. The model rates Kuressaare's form at 57% versus Trans Narva's 43%.

Smart angle: The official market consensus backs double chance X2 (draw or Trans Narva win) at 2.30, which offers draw protection on the away side. Given the hosts' inconsistent recent form and competitive head-to-head record, this represents solid value against a home favourite that has won just once in five matches.