Tammeka vs Kuressaare
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Tammeka host Kuressaare in Meistriliiga round 11 at Tamme Stadium, Tartu, on Friday 8 May 2026 (16:00 UTC). Both sides sit in the lower half of the table—Tammeka seventh on 10 points, Kuressaare ninth on 9 points—fighting to climb out of relegation danger in a competitive Estonian league campaign.

Tammeka arrive in poor form with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last five, conceding seven goals while scoring just three. Their most recent result was a 1–0 victory over Paide, but losses to Laagri and FC Levadia Tallinn expose a fragile defence. Kuressaare show marginally better recent form (2W, 0D, 3L), with seven goals scored in five games, though they have dropped points with consecutive defeats to FC Levadia Tallinn, Nõmme United and Vaprus. The visitor holds a psychological edge after a 3–2 home win in their most recent head-to-head fixture in March 2026.

Bookmakers favour Tammeka at 1.90, reflecting home advantage, while Kuressaare sit at 3.25. The statistical model, however, signals cautious optimism for the away side or a draw, assigning 45% probability to each outcome versus just 10% for a home win. The model rates Kuressaare's attack (70%) significantly above Tammeka's defence (53%), suggesting the visitor's offensive threat may overcome the home team's weak form in both creation and solidity.

Key bet: Double chance 1X remains the sensible route, protecting against the upset risk while backing the home fixture's traditional advantage. At 1.29, this covers either Tammeka victory or a draw, shielding against Kuressaare's proven ability to win away—a pragmatic hedge when form is mixed and both teams struggle defensively.