Tammeka vs Trans Narva
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Tammeka hosts Trans Narva at Tamme Stadium in Tartu on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 11:30 GMT in Meistriliiga Round 17. This is a critical fixture for mid-table Tammeka, who sit fifth on 20 points, while Trans Narva languish tenth with just 10 points. The home side are heavy favourites to extend their advantage in the standings.

Tammeka have recovered from a recent defeat to FC Levadia Tallinn, posting 3 wins and 1 draw in their last five outings (6 goals scored, 3 conceded). The home team's form rating stands at 71%, with an identical attacking efficiency and a robust defensive rating of 80%. By contrast, Trans Narva show a form rating of just 29%, though they have scored 12 goals in five matches, they have conceded 5 and sit on a negative goal difference of -28 in the league. Recent games reveal inconsistency: a 10-0 rout was followed by defeats to Nõmme United and a goalless draw with Kuressaare.

Bookmakers strongly back Tammeka at 1.65, with the draw at 3.70 and Trans Narva at 4.20. The statistical model assigns 45% probability to a home win and 45% to a draw, suggesting a tight contest despite the odds. BTTS Yes is priced at 1.55, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.59. The model favours a low-scoring outcome, recommending the double chance 1X and Under 3.5 combination.

Key bet: Tammeka are the clear favourites for good reason. Strong home form, superior attacking and defensive ratings, and a poor run for visitors make a home win the most logical play at 1.65. Despite the model's balanced probabilities, back the heavy favourite to claim three points.