Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Vaprus host Flora Tallinn in Meistriliiga Round 16 action at Parnu Rannastaadion on Tuesday, 16 June 2026. Flora, the league's in-form side and third-place contenders, arrive as overwhelming favourites with odds of 1.47. Vaprus sit sixth with a concerning goal difference, needing points to climb the table.

Flora Tallinn have been exceptional: five consecutive wins, 14 goals scored and only 1 conceded in their last five matches. Their defence is fortress-like, and they sit on 27 points. Vaprus show mixed form with three wins but two losses in their recent run, scoring 8 and conceding 10 goals. The gap between these sides is stark: Flora rank third, Vaprus sixth with a -10 goal difference.

Bookmakers have priced Flora Tallinn at 1.47 to win outright, reflecting their dominance. The statistical model suggests a 50% probability for an away victory and 50% for a draw, backed by Flora's formidable 92% defensive rating versus Vaprus' weak 8%. Head-to-head records favour Flora decisively: four wins and one draw in their last five meetings, including victories of 3-0 and 2-0 this season.

Key bet: Flora Tallinn to win outright at 1.47 remains the standout pick. Their relentless form, superior defensive and offensive ratings, and commanding head-to-head record make them the clear choice against a struggling Vaprus side.