Tupa vs Santa Fé FC
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Tupa hosts Santa Fé FC in Paulista Série B action on Saturday, 20 June 2026, at 18:00 UTC. This Regular Season matchday 10 encounter pits the fourth-placed home side against a struggling sixth-placed visitor. Tupa are clear favourites to extend their advantage, while Santa Fé FC desperately seek their first win in five games.

Tupa enter in mixed form, claiming 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses across their last five outings, with a balanced goal tally of 7 scored and 7 conceded. Their most recent contest was a 1–1 draw against Assisense, following a heavy 1–3 defeat to America SP. In the league, they occupy fourth place with 10 points from 8 matches. Santa Fé FC, by contrast, are in freefall, winless in their last five matches (0W 0D 5L) and have shipped 14 goals while scoring just 5. They sit sixth with only 3 points and a goal difference of −9, making them the division's weakest defensive unit.

The betting market reflects Tupa's dominance, pricing a home win at 1.25, with Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 and double chance 1X at 1.05. The statistical model suggests a tighter contest, projecting home win probability at 45% and draw at 45%, with away win probability just 10%. The model's defensive rating favours the home side (67% vs 33%), though attack ratings are closer at 58% and 42%.

Pick to watch: Tupa to win outright at 1.25. The home side's superior league position, recent head-to-head dominance (3–1 victory in May), and Santa Fé FC's alarming defensive record all support the favourite. Back the home win with confidence.