Livingston vs Kilmarnock
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Livingston host Kilmarnock in a Scottish Premiership Relegation Group clash at The Home of the Set Fare Arena on Sunday, 17 May 2026. With both sides battling for survival in the lower reaches of the table, this fixture carries significant weight. Kilmarnock sit fourth in the group with 37 points, while Livingston occupy sixth with 21 points, making this a pivotal encounter in their respective campaigns.

Livingston have struggled recently, claiming just one win in their last five matches alongside two draws and two losses. They have scored six goals but conceded eight over this period, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Kilmarnock, by contrast, arrive in excellent form with three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five. They have scored 11 goals while conceding only four, demonstrating superior attacking potency and defensive solidity. The form gap is stark, with Kilmarnock rated at 67% versus Livingston's 33%.

The betting market reflects Kilmarnock's superiority, pricing them at 2.40 (slight favourites) while Livingston sit at 2.75. Double chance X2 (draw or Kilmarnock) is available at 1.40, offering value. The statistical model projects 45% probability for a draw and 45% for a Kilmarnock win, with only 10% for a home victory. BTTS Yes sits at 1.57, while Over 2.5 goals is priced 1.73.

Key bet: Double chance X2 emerges as the smart angle here. With Kilmarnock in superior form and the model heavily favouring either a draw or away victory, backing draw or Kilmarnock at 1.40 provides reasonable protection against Livingston's unlikely home success.