Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Guimaraes host Casa Pia at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques on Monday, 11 May 2026, in a Primeira Liga regular season fixture (Matchday 33). With the campaign reaching its final stretch, Guimaraes sit eighth on 42 points, while Casa Pia occupy 16th place with 26 points. The hosts are favoured to take the win, but the visitors cannot be written off entirely in a competitive Portuguese league.

Guimaraes arrive in strong form: three wins, one draw and one defeat over their last five matches, scoring 10 goals while conceding just six. A heavy 1–5 loss to Sporting CP notwithstanding, they have bounced back with victories over Rio Ave and GIL Vicente. In contrast, Casa Pia are struggling badly, recording no wins in their last five games—just one draw and four losses, with a goal tally of only two scored against seven conceded. The form disparity is stark, and the league standings reflect it: Guimaraes hold a 16-point cushion over their visitors.

Bookmakers price Guimaraes as clear favourites at 1.70, with a draw at 3.80 and Casa Pia win at 4.50. The statistical model projects home dominance, with 45% win probability for Guimaraes against 45% for a draw and only 10% for the visitors. Model ratings favour the home side across attack (83% vs 17%) and form (91% vs 9%). The market's double chance 1X at 1.18 reflects genuine uncertainty despite home advantage.

Key bet: the double chance 1X offers strong value. Guimaraes hold both form and personnel advantages, yet recent head-to-head patterns and the model's nearly even split between home win and draw suggest protecting against a stalemate makes tactical sense. Back the home side or the draw at 1.18.