Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Liverpool Montevideo hosts Cerro Largo in the Primera División Apertura Torneo Intermedio on Monday 8 June 2026 at Estadio Belvedere in Montevideo. The home side enter as favourites in the 1X2 market, with the encounter carrying mid-table significance as both teams jockey for improved league position in Uruguay's top flight.

Liverpool Montevideo sit 9th with 20 points from a mixed record of five wins, five draws and five losses. Recent form shows two wins followed by a draw and two defeats, with five goals scored against three conceded in their last five games. Cerro Largo rank 12th on 17 points but have shown stronger recent momentum: three consecutive wins against modest opposition, though a recent loss to Racing Montevideo halted that streak. The visitors have scored eight goals in their last five games but conceded four, indicating a leaky defence.

Bookmakers price Liverpool Montevideo at 1.90, with the draw at 3.30 and Cerro Largo away at 4.10. The statistical model assigns 45% probability to a home win and 45% to a draw, with just 10% for an away victory. Double chance 1X carries implied value at 1.21, reflecting both the model consensus and bookmaker confidence in a home result or stalemate.

Pick to watch: Double chance 1X — Liverpool Montevideo or draw — emerges as the strongest angle. With Liverpool favoured at 1.90 and the model heavily weighting either a home win or draw, backing draw protection provides excellent value and shields against Cerro Largo's unpredictable away form.