Almagro vs Club Atlético Güemes
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Almagro hosts Club Atlético Güemes in a Primera Nacional showdown at Estadio Tres de Febrero on Sunday, 31 May 2026. Both teams occupy the lower half of the table and are fighting to avoid relegation in Argentina's second tier. With Almagro ranked 18th and Güemes 16th, three points are vital for each side as the season progresses through Round 16 of the regular campaign.

Almagro has won only once in their last five matches, recording 1W 1D 3L with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. They sit on 12 points and sport a -9 goal difference, indicating defensive fragility. Club Atlético Güemes sit slightly higher with 16 points from 4W 4D 6L but have also struggled, scoring 5 and conceding 9 in their recent run. Güemes boast a superior form rating at 60% versus 40% for the hosts, though both clubs show defensive vulnerability.

Bookmakers price Almagro victory at 2.40, a draw at 2.88, and Güemes at 3.30. The double chance 1X trades at 1.30, signalling market favour toward the home side or stalemate. The statistical model diverges, projecting 45% draw probability and 45% for an away win, with home victory at just 10%. Goals are expected: BTTS Yes sits at 2.33, and Over 2.5 at 2.94.

Key bet: Double chance 1X at 1.30 offers value protection. While the model sees Güemes upside, the home venue and modest home odds make backing Almagro or the draw a sensible approach. Draw protection limits downside in a tight encounter.