Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Gremio host Chapecoense-sc in Serie A Round 25 at a venue in Porto Alegre on Sunday, 30 August 2026. The home side enters as clear favourites at 1.53, while the visitors sit 20th and face an uphill battle in this mid-table clash where Gremio aim to climb higher after a mixed recent spell.

Gremio occupy 15th place with 25 points from 23 matches, having won six, drawn seven and lost ten. Their recent form is inconsistent: two wins over five games, but sandwiched between defeats to RB Bragantino (0-1) and Atletico-MG (0-3) that exposed defensive frailties. They have conceded six goals in their last five outings. Chapecoense-sc languish 20th on 14 points, struggling near the relegation zone with just two wins in 23 games. A 3-3 draw with Bahia and recent loss to Coritiba (1-2) highlight their instability, though a 1-0 victory over Sao Paulo showed glimpses of fight.

Bookmakers strongly favour Gremio at 1.53, with a double chance 1X priced at 1.13. The statistical model, however, suggests caution: it assigns 10% win probability to the home side against 45% for a draw and 45% for Chapecoense-sc. The form rating (Home 44% vs Away 56%) and attack differential (Home 36% vs Away 64%) reveal a weaker home outfit. BTTS Yes trades at 1.89, reflecting offensive potential on both flanks.

Key bet: Despite the model's divergence, the market consensus and bookmaker odds heavily back Gremio to win outright. This remains the official pick at 1.53—a fair reflection of home advantage and Chapecoense-sc's deeper struggles. Back the home side's quality edge.