Gremio vs Coritiba
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Gremio hosts Coritiba in a Serie A fixture at Porto Alegre on Sunday, 26 April 2026. Gremio sits 13th with 13 points, while Coritiba occupies a healthier 7th place with 19 points. Both sides face a mid-table battle where three points could significantly shift momentum in their respective campaigns.

Gremio has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches, scoring 3 goals while conceding the same number. Recent results include a 2–0 victory over Confiança and a 1–0 win against Deportivo Riestra, though they suffered a 0–2 defeat to Cruzeiro. Coritiba, by contrast, shows impressive stability with 1 win and 4 consecutive draws, recording 6 goals scored against 4 conceded. Their recent form includes a 2–0 triumph over Atlético-MG and consistent defensive resilience with a goalless draw against Santos.

The betting market favours Gremio at 2.00, with the draw priced at 3.40 and Coritiba at 4.00. BTTS Yes trades at 1.94, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 2.21. The analytical model suggests near-equal home and draw probabilities at 35% each, with away chances at 30%. Notably, the model rates Coritiba significantly higher in form and attack, presenting value in draw scenarios.

Key bet: Double chance 1X at 1.23 aligns with the model's forecast of 70% probability for a Gremio win or draw. Coritiba's superior metrics suggest caution on outright home backing, making the draw or home result the smarter angle.