Alvarado vs Circulo Deportivo
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Alvarado hosts Circulo Deportivo in Torneo Federal A's 14th round regular season fixture on Saturday, 20 June 2026, at an unnamed venue in Mar del Plata. The hosts are favoured heavily at 1.38, reflecting their commanding league position and recent dominance over their struggling visitors.

Alvarado sits second in the standings with 20 points from 5 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, boasting a +7 goal difference and a potent attacking record. Their form is excellent: three wins and two draws in their last five matches, with 9 goals scored and just 2 conceded. Circulo Deportivo, by contrast, languish in 9th place with only 8 points—just one win in 12 games, four consecutive 0-0 draws, and a goal differential of -8. The hosts defeated their opponents 1-0 in April.

Bookmakers signal a decisive home advantage. The 1X double chance sits at 1.05, indicating near-certainty of a home outcome. The statistical model assigns 45% probability to a home win (level with the draw), but the form differential—home 73% vs away 27%—and the market's extreme confidence in Alvarado favour a straightforward victory. BTTS No is backed at 1.35, reflecting Circulo Deportivo's recent scoreless drought.

Key bet: Alvarado to win at 1.38 remains the standout play. The hosts' superior form, league position, attacking potency and head-to-head edge over a historically misfiring side justify the market's confidence.