Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Maccabi Tel Aviv hosts CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round at Bloomfield Stadium on Thursday, 6 August 2026. This is a crucial two-legged affair where the winner advances toward the group stage. Maccabi enters as heavy favourites at home, with bookmakers pricing them at 2.01 to win outright, while CSKA Sofia sits at 3.63.

Maccabi Tel Aviv arrives in impressive form, winning four of their last five matches and scoring 11 goals while conceding just three. Recent victories include dominant displays against Sheriff Tiraspol and a convincing win over Hapoel Beer Sheva. By contrast, CSKA Sofia shows mixed form with two wins and three draws from their last five, suggesting a defensive mindset. They have scored five goals but conceded three, indicating they may struggle to break down a resolute Maccabi backline.

The betting market reflects Maccabi's advantage, with double chance 1X priced at 1.26—a highly attractive floor for home backing. The analytical model suggests a 45% probability for a Maccabi win and 45% for a draw, totalling 90% for the home side or a stalemate. Over 2.5 goals sits at 1.95, while BTTS Yes trades at 1.75, reflecting moderate attacking intent from both sides.

Smart angle: Double chance 1X at 1.26 is the clear recommended play. Maccabi Tel Aviv superior form, home advantage at Bloomfield Stadium, and defensive stability make them unlikely to lose. A draw also protects your stake, making this one of the safest bets in the round.