FYR Macedonia vs Slovenia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

FYR Macedonia hosts Slovenia in a UEFA Nations League League B fixture on Monday, 16 November 2026. Slovenia arrives as the clear favourite at 1.50, reflecting their superior recent form and league position. This match carries significant weight in the group standings, with Slovenia seeking to maintain momentum and distance themselves further from their hosts.

FYR Macedonia is in dire straits, having lost all four matches in the current cycle without scoring a single goal while conceding ten. Their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed heavily against Switzerland (0-3) and Scotland (0-2), and they were dismantled by Slovenia just recently (0-2). By contrast, Slovenia sits second in the group with 7 points from 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, boasting a respectable +2 goal difference. Their attacking fluency—six goals in five games—and tighter defence (five conceded) mark them as clear group contenders.

The betting market reflects Slovenia's dominance: the bookmakers price them at 1.50 to win outright, while the draw sits at 3.86 and FYR Macedonia at a distant 6.33. The analytical model suggests 45% probability for a Slovenia victory, though it assigns 45% to a draw—a notably cautious assessment given the one-sided recent meetings. Form ratings heavily favour the visitors, with Slovenia rated at 100% versus FYR Macedonia's 0%.

Key bet: Slovenia to win outright at 1.50 remains the smart choice. FYR Macedonia has shown zero attacking threat and catastrophic defending; Slovenia has beaten them twice already this cycle and controls the group narrative. The short odd reflects reality.