Greece vs Serbia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Greece hosts Serbia in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture on Monday, 16 November 2026. With Greece sitting second in the standings and Serbia winless at the bottom, this clash carries significant implications for qualification hopes. The hosts arrive as heavy favourites, reflected in the 1.34 odds for a Greece victory.

Greece have shown resilience in recent matches, posting 2 wins and 2 draws across their last five games while scoring 5 goals and conceding just 4. Most recently they drew 0-0 with Germany before a 2-2 stalemate against Netherlands and an impressive 1-0 victory over Germany. By contrast, Serbia are in freefall, suffering five consecutive defeats without a goal-scoring respite. They have conceded 13 times in this stretch, including losses to Netherlands and Germany. The gulf in form is stark: Greece boasts 8 points and second place, while Serbia remain pointless in fourth after four games.

Bookmakers have installed Greece as commanding favourites, with the 1.34 home odds reflecting both team quality and recent trajectory. The analytical model amplifies this picture: 50% win probability for Greece, 50% for a draw, and 0% for Serbia. Attack ratings favour the hosts at 63% to 38%, while defensive strength shows 73% for Greece versus 27% for the visitors. A double chance Greece or draw emerges as the model's consensus.

Pick to watch: Greece to win outright remains the clear focal point. The hosts dominated Serbia 2-1 in their September meeting, maintain second-place credentials with consistent form, and face opponents devoid of confidence or points. Back Greece at 1.34.