Slovenia vs FYR Macedonia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Slovenia hosts FYR Macedonia in a UEFA Nations League League B fixture on Tuesday 29 September 2026. Both teams enter this encounter level on points at the foot of their section, with qualification hopes still very much alive. The home side are favoured by bookmakers, reflected in an attractive 1.65 odds for a Slovenia victory.

Recent form tells a mixed story for the hosts. Slovenia have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five outings, striking six goals while conceding seven—a net-positive attacking record despite inconsistency. Most recently they secured a 3-2 win over Montenegro, though losses to Croatia and mixed results against Cyprus and others reveal defensive vulnerabilities. FYR Macedonia arrive in poor form: winless in five with just two draws and three defeats. Alarmingly, they have conceded 15 goals in five matches while scoring only one, indicating severe attacking and defensive problems that make them unlikely contenders here.

Bookmakers heavily back a Slovenia home win at 1.65, with FYR Macedonia an outsider at 4.75. The draw sits at 3.60. The statistical model, however, diverges significantly, suggesting roughly equal probabilities for a draw or away result. Market sentiment increasingly leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.18, though Under remains competitive at 1.68.

Key bet: Slovenia remain clear favourites on the pitch and in the betting market. Despite the model's cautious split, their superior recent form, better goal difference and home advantage support backing the hosts. Slovenia win at 1.65 remains the most logical play.