FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

FK Liepaja hosts BFC Daugavpils at Daugavas stadions on Sunday, 17 May 2026 (16:00 UTC) in Virsliga round 13. Both teams sit in mid-table — Liepaja fourth on 15 points, Daugavpils sixth on 14 points — with little separating them. This is a regular-season clash where neither side can afford to slip further down the standings.

FK Liepaja shows inconsistency: two wins and a draw in their last five, but also two losses including heavy defeats (0-5 to Rīgas FS, 0-1 to Riga). They've scored 7 goals and conceded 9 over that span. BFC Daugavpils are in worse form — winless in five, with three defeats and two draws, mustering only 3 goals while leaking 7. The head-to-head record is mixed: Daugavpils won 2-0 in April 2026, but Liepaja has taken victories in three of their last five meetings.

Bookmakers favour Liepaja, pricing a home win at 1.75 versus 3.90 for an away victory. The draw sits at 3.60. The statistical model suggests 45% probability for a home win and 45% for a draw, with only 10% for an away win. Double chance 1X (home or draw) is priced at 1.19, reflecting heavy backing for Liepaja not to lose. BTTS Yes trades at 1.57, suggesting modest goal-scoring expectations from both sides.

Smart angle: With FK Liepaja the market favourite and the statistical model reinforcing a high probability of either a home win or draw, double chance 1X at 1.19 provides solid protection in a competitive mid-table encounter. This backing aligns the market signal with model probabilities, making it the recommended play.