NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

NK Varazdin hosts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at Gradski stadion Varazdin on Saturday, 9 May 2026, in a decisive HNL regular season fixture (Round 34). The hosts sit third with 47 points, while visitors occupy fifth place with 41 points. Both sides are fighting for European qualification spots, making this a crucial encounter in the final stretch of the Croatian top-flight campaign.

NK Varazdin enter on mixed form: three wins in their last five, but two defeats to title contenders Dinamo Zagreb and Hajduk Split highlight vulnerability against elite opposition. They have scored 7 goals while conceding 6 over this run. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb show stronger recent stability with three wins and a draw in five matches, though a heavy 0-3 loss to Rijeka exposes defensive frailty. Lokomotiva's record stands at 10 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses across the season, suggesting a side that draws frequently but struggles for consistency.

The bookmakers price NK Varazdin as modest home favourites at 1.95, with the draw at 3.30 and away victory at 3.50. BTTS Yes trades at 1.64, reflecting realistic scoring potential from both teams. The statistical model assigns equal weight to home victory and a draw at 35% each, with away chances at 30%. Varazdin's superior attack rating (54%) versus Lokomotiva's defensive strength (60%) suggests a tightly-contested match, though the previous encounter ended 1-1 in March.

Pick to watch: Double chance 1X — backing NK Varazdin or the draw at the favourable 1.28 odds. Home advantage, third-place positioning, and draw protection in a volatile contest make this the smart angle for a competitive final-round clash where neither team can afford complacency.