Cyprus vs Latvia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Cyprus faces Latvia in a UEFA Nations League League C fixture at the GSP Stadium, Nicosia on Monday, 05 October 2026. This matchday 4 encounter holds significance in the standings, with Cyprus occupying second place and Latvia fourth. Both sides are competing for points in a competitive group where every result matters.

Cyprus enters on mixed form: two wins, two draws and one loss across their last five games, netting six goals while conceding three. Their recent head-to-head against Latvia ended scoreless on 28 September 2026, but before that they defeated Armenia 2-0. Latvia, meanwhile, sits fourth with only one point from two draws in five recent matches, scoring just twice while conceding six. Their defensive struggles are evident, having lost twice in their last five outings including a 1-2 defeat to Montenegro.

Bookmakers favour Cyprus at 1.73, with the draw at 3.50 and Latvia at 5.00. The statistical model predicts a 45% probability for a home win and 45% for a draw, with only 10% for an away victory. Double chance 1X is heavily backed at 1.18, reflecting confidence that Cyprus will avoid defeat. Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.25 over the over option.

Key bet: The market and model align on Double chance 1X—backing Cyprus or a draw at 1.18. Cyprus are stronger at home, Latvia are leaking goals, and the recent stalemate suggests neither side will be reckless. This is the smart angles play for this matchday.