Montenegro vs Latvia
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Montenegro hosts Latvia in UEFA Nations League League C action at Gradski Stadion, Podgorica on Thursday, 12 November 2026. The hosts are clear favourites at 1.33, sitting atop their group with 10 points from four matches. Latvia, meanwhile, languish in fourth place with just one point, having won none of their three league games to date. This is a decisive matchup in the group's hierarchy.

Montenegro arrive in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five outings with three wins and two draws; they have scored nine goals while conceding only six across that run. Their recent record includes a 2-1 victory over Latvia just weeks ago, underlining their superiority. Latvia, by contrast, are struggling badly. They have won none of their last five matches, recording one draw and four losses, with a concerning goal difference of -4 and only two goals scored across their recent fixtures. The gap in form and quality is substantial.

Bookmakers price Montenegro as heavy favourites, and the analytical model supports this, assigning the hosts a 50% win probability alongside a 50% draw chance. Latvia are given virtually no winning probability. The market offers 1.85 for Over 2.5 goals, suggesting modest goal expectations, while BTTS Yes sits at 2.22. Double chance 1X (Montenegro or draw) trades at 1.07, reflecting the overwhelming consensus that Latvia will not win.

Key bet: Montenegro are the clear pick here. At 1.33, they offer exceptional value despite odds that reflect their dominance. Recent form, head-to-head record and league position all favour a convincing home victory. Back the hosts to extend their unbeaten run and consolidate first place.