Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc
PREDICTION / ANALYSIS / ODDS

Mirassol hosts Chapecoense-sc in a Serie A regular-season clash at the Mirassol venue on Sunday, 10 May 2026. Both sides sit in the relegation zone, with Mirassol at 18th with 12 points and Chapecoense-sc 20th with just 8 points. The hosts enter as heavy favourites to secure three vital points in what is essentially a fight for Brazilian top-flight survival.

Mirassol arrive in impressive form, winning three of their last five matches and scoring 7 goals while conceding only 3 during that spell. Recent victories over LDU de Quito, Corinthians and Always Ready show real attacking promise. Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have struggled significantly—just two wins in five games, with three losses and a concerning defensive record that has seen them concede 7 goals in that period. The form disparity is stark, with Mirassol clearly the superior side at this moment.

The betting market reflects Mirassol's dominance, pricing them at 1.45 for the outright win. The analytical model suggests a competitive encounter, predicting 45% for a home win and 45% for a draw, with only 10% probability assigned to an away victory. The form rating heavily favours the hosts at 86% versus 14%, while attack and defence metrics similarly support Mirassol's superiority across the pitch.

Key bet: Mirassol to win at 1.45 represents the clear play here. The hosts' recent form, defensive solidity and overwhelming statistical advantage make them strong favourites, and the market pricing reflects genuine value. Despite the tight model probabilities, the weight of evidence points to a home victory.